Conflict analysis of the situation around the Rogun hydroelectric power station using Analytic Network Process

Authors

  • Анастасия Сергеевна Власкина St. Petersburg State University, 7–9, Universitetskaya nab., St.Petersburg, 199034, Russian Federation
  • Татьяна Васильевна Крюкова St. Petersburg State University, 7–9, Universitetskaya nab., St.Petersburg, 199034, Russian Federation

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.21638/spbu17.2018.409

Abstract

The article discusses the conflict around the construction of the Rogun HEPS. On the one hand, for Tajikistan, the hydropower plans can solve the actual problem of energy deficit, on the other - for Uzbekistan and neighboring states - this is a threat of environmental and social problems. The purpose of the study is a conflict analysis and justification for the implementation of the project for the commissioning of the Rogun HEPS by Tajikistan to December 2018, as a result of which the significance of the probability of this event is determined. A meaningful model of the situation includes object, subjects, their interests, the chronology of the conflict. Also it was used the expert method of analytical networks (MAS) Thomas L. Saaty with the help of proprietary software Super Decisions. In order to describe advantages and disadvantages of the decision, experts created hierarchies of Benefits, Opportunities, Costs and Risks with the same alternatives. As a result, the probability of the project implementation at the planned time was very high. So, the construction of the hydroelectric power station is positive for the economy, policy and social sphere, and it is associated with the least risks. However, changing the regional and international conditions can change the ratio not in favor of construction, which requires additional research. The analytical tools presented in the article can be an effective tool in the expert forecasts.

Keywords:

сonflict, structural and dynamic indicators of conflict,, Rogun HEPS, energy deficit, hierarchy, ANP

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References

Литература

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References

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Published

2019-01-15

How to Cite

Власкина, А. С., & Крюкова, Т. В. (2019). Conflict analysis of the situation around the Rogun hydroelectric power station using Analytic Network Process. Vestnik of Saint Petersburg University. Philosophy and Conflict Studies, 34(4), 556–570. https://doi.org/10.21638/spbu17.2018.409

Issue

Vol. 34 No. 4 (2018): Vestnik of Saint Petersburg University. Philosophy and Conflict Studies

Section

Conflict studies

License

Articles of "Vestnik of Saint Petersburg University. Philosophy and Conflict Studies" are open access distributed under the terms of the License Agreement with Saint Petersburg State University, which permits to the authors unrestricted distribution and self-archiving free of charge.